Extreme Heat Risk: England’s Most Diverse Areas 15x Likely

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As the effects of climate change become increasingly pronounced, recent findings have unveiled a startling reality about the intersection of ethnicity, poverty, and extreme heat in England. A comprehensive analysis by Carbon Brief reveals that neighbourhoods housing a significant proportion of minority ethnic individuals are a staggering 15 times more likely to endure extreme heat compared to their less diverse counterparts. This alarming statistic underscores the urgent need for targeted policy action to address these inequalities.

Interestingly, those with the lowest carbon footprints—individuals and communities that contribute the least to climate change—are often situated in areas that are disproportionately affected by rising temperatures. This paradox raises questions about the fairness of climate change impacts and highlights the essential concept of climate justice, which posits that those who have contributed least to the problem are often the most severely affected by its consequences.

Through a meticulous combination of satellite data on heat exposure and demographic information encompassing per-capita emissions, ethnicity, and levels of deprivation, Carbon Brief has shed light on the nuanced ways in which climate change is exacerbating existing social inequalities across England.

The implications of extreme heat are dire. Over the past three years, approximately 6,000 deaths in England have been attributed to heat-related illnesses, a number that has doubled compared to previous years. As climate change continues to escalate, experts predict that the mortality rate associated with extreme heat could triple by 2050 if we fail to implement adequate adaptation measures.

Alarmingly, around half of the homes in the UK are already at risk of overheating, a figure that is projected to rise to 90% should global temperatures increase by 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Vulnerable populations—including children, the elderly, and those with disabilities—are particularly susceptible to the health risks posed by extreme heat.

Moreover, the analysis reveals that poorer communities and people of colour are more likely to live in neighbourhoods with heightened heat exposure. This correlation underscores the broader narrative of climate justice, which highlights the inequities inherent in the climate crisis. It is a stark reminder that climate change is not merely an environmental issue but a profound social challenge that demands urgent attention.

Understanding the Heat Threat

The increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves pose significant health risks to the population. Government statistics indicate that heat has led to approximately 6,000 fatalities in England over the last three years. This figure is nearly double that of the preceding three-year period, illustrating a troubling trend linked directly to climate change.

In June 2025 alone, a heatwave claimed the lives of over 260 individuals in London, with scientific studies directly attributing this tragic event to climate change. The Climate Change Committee (CCC) warns that without immediate adaptation measures, the UK could see heat-related fatalities triple by 2050.

The CCC’s findings paint a grim picture: nearly half of the homes in the UK are currently at risk of overheating, a figure that could rise to an alarming 90% if global temperatures increase by 2°C. Vulnerable groups—including children, the elderly, and disabled individuals—are disproportionately affected by extreme heat, further compounding the health risks associated with rising temperatures.

This reality is compounded by the fact that communities of colour and poorer populations tend to have lower carbon footprints than their wealthier, predominantly white counterparts. This dissonance illustrates the concept of climate justice, where those least responsible for climate change often bear the brunt of its consequences.

Carbon Footprints and Heat Exposure

To better understand the relationships between carbon emissions, heat exposure, and social demographics, Carbon Brief conducted a thorough analysis using satellite data on heat exposure alongside neighbourhood-level carbon footprint data. This analysis focused specifically on England, the region experiencing the most extreme heat within the UK.

Each neighbourhood was assigned a “heat hazard” score, indicating its likelihood of experiencing elevated temperatures during hot weather. The findings revealed a troubling trend: neighbourhoods with lower carbon footprints are twice as likely to encounter high heat hazard scores compared to those with higher carbon emissions.

In particular, 13.4% of the neighbourhoods with the lowest carbon footprints rank among the most heat-exposed areas in England. In contrast, only 7.0% of the highest carbon footprint neighbourhoods fall into the same category. This discrepancy highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of how urban environments contribute to heat exposure.

Many of the neighbourhoods with lower carbon footprints are situated in densely populated urban areas, where residents rely less on cars and often live in energy-efficient flats. Conversely, areas with higher carbon footprints are predominantly rural, where car travel is often a necessity due to limited public transport options. Additionally, wealthier individuals in these rural areas tend to engage in higher-emission activities, such as frequent flying.

Ethnicity and Deprivation: A Heat Risk Analysis

Carbon Brief’s analysis also examined the heat threat facing deprived neighbourhoods and those with substantial minority ethnic populations. Data from the 2021 census reveals a clear correlation between the proportion of people of colour in a neighbourhood and its likelihood of facing extreme heat during hot weather.

The findings are striking: neighbourhoods classified as the most ethnically diverse—where half or more of the population identifies as minority ethnic—are 15 times more likely to possess high heat hazard scores than the least diverse neighbourhoods, which are predominantly white. Areas such as Newham in east London, Saltley in Birmingham, and Spinney Hills in Leicester illustrate this stark contrast in heat exposure.

In addition to ethnicity, the analysis highlights the relationship between poverty and heat risk. Individuals residing in the most deprived neighbourhoods are over three times more likely to experience high heat hazards compared to those in the least deprived areas. While the correlation between poverty and extreme heat is significant, it is eclipsed by the relationship between heat exposure and ethnicity.

The Urban Heat Island Effect

At the heart of this analysis lies the phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. This occurs when urban areas—characterised by dense buildings, roads, and heat-absorbing surfaces—experience significantly higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas. Cities such as London, Manchester, and Birmingham have recorded temperature increases of up to 5°C relative to their rural counterparts in recent decades.

This effect is particularly pronounced in inner-city neighbourhoods that house many individuals facing high levels of deprivation and large minority communities. As a consequence, these populations are disproportionately exposed to dangerous temperatures, exacerbated by the urban heat island effect.

Access to green spaces further influences the severity of the urban heat island effect. Research indicates that individuals in deprived areas, particularly those identifying as black, are more likely to reside in neighbourhoods lacking sufficient green spaces. This lack of access contributes to the heightened heat exposure experienced by these communities.

Existing scientific literature corroborates the findings from Carbon Brief, demonstrating the urban heat island effect and its impact on vulnerable populations. Notably, studies conducted in the United States have highlighted how historic housing inequalities have resulted in stark patterns of segregation, with lower-income communities bearing the brunt of climate impacts.

A Call to Action: Addressing Inequalities

The data emerging from this analysis paints a sobering picture of the unequal burden of climate change, highlighting the urgent need for action. Researchers, activists, and local governments across the UK are increasingly aware of the amplifying effects of climate change on existing social inequalities.

Dr Charles Ogunbode, an expert in applied psychology at the University of Nottingham, emphasises that climate change serves to illuminate and exacerbate social inequalities. He asserts that any policies implemented—whether in health or climate sectors—must prioritise addressing these inequalities to ensure a just and equitable response to climate change.

While Carbon Brief’s analysis provides valuable insights, it also acknowledges the complexity of factors influencing heat exposure. Previous research has identified over 40 indicators contributing to a neighbourhood’s vulnerability to extreme heat, revealing that people of colour and those with lower carbon footprints are generally more susceptible to climate impacts.

One major factor in the UK’s vulnerability to heat extremes is the inadequacy of its housing stock, which is ill-equipped to cope with rising temperatures. Poorly adapted housing disproportionately affects lower-income individuals, who are more likely to reside in small homes, flats, and social housing—places that suffer significantly during heatwaves.

Dr Giorgos Petrou, a building physics modelling researcher at University College London, highlights the importance of financial means and ownership status in determining households’ ability to adapt to climate change. The government must take proactive measures across its policy agenda to not only address extreme heat but also support those most affected.

Policies could include expanding tree cover, enhancing green spaces, and renovating outdated social housing in at-risk communities. Emma Howard Boyd, former chair of the Environment Agency, underscores the potential for the government’s focus on house building and retrofitting to create positive change for communities most impacted by climate change.

In Conclusion

The findings from Carbon Brief’s analysis serve as a clarion call for action. As climate change continues to exacerbate existing inequalities, it is imperative that policymakers, researchers, and communities work collaboratively to develop strategies that address these disparities. By prioritising the needs of the most vulnerable populations, we can forge a path towards a more equitable and sustainable future.

As we navigate the complexities of climate change, let us remain committed to the principles of climate justice and work towards a society where no one is left behind. Together, we can create a resilient, sustainable future for all.