Do EPP Votes Align with Far-Right? Key Insights from Data

Hello, Champions of Net Zero!

In the wake of the 2024 European Parliament elections, a significant shift has been observed in the political landscape, particularly among the right-wing factions. With the European People’s Party (EPP) emerging as a dominant force, the dynamics of voting coalitions have become increasingly complex. Recent analyses highlight that, while the EPP does not frequently align with far-right groups, when it does, the implications are noteworthy. Let’s delve into the key insights gathered from the data regarding the voting behaviours in the European Parliament over the past year.

1. The Resilience of the Grand Coalition

Despite the rise of right-wing parties, the traditional centre-left and centre-right coalition, which includes the EPP, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the Renew Europe group, remains largely intact. In fact, recent data reveals that these groups voted together in approximately 88% of decisive plenary votes during the first year of this new legislative term. This slight dip from the previous term’s 90% suggests that the grand coalition is still a formidable force in the European Parliament, even as tensions simmer beneath the surface.

The continuation of this coalition is significant as it underscores a commitment to collaborative governance, even amidst challenges posed by the growing influence of far-right factions. The EPP, S&D, and Renew have managed to navigate these turbulent waters, often finding common ground on critical issues.

2. EPP and ECR: A Rare Alliance

While the EPP has not established a routine alliance with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), there have been notable instances where they have voted together against the S&D. Data indicates that this occurred in about 6% of final plenary votes, mirroring the statistics from the previous term. However, what is striking is that when the EPP and ECR do collaborate, they tend to win a higher percentage of these votes compared to before. This shift may reflect the increased political weight of the ECR following the recent elections and hints at a potential evolution in EPP’s strategy towards leveraging right-wing support to achieve legislative goals.

Many of the votes that saw collaboration between the EPP and ECR revolved around non-binding resolutions, particularly those addressing human rights issues. However, there were also instances where this alliance influenced legislative changes, such as a contentious bill aimed at relaxing protections for wolves. This selective partnership raises questions about the EPP’s approach and the potential implications for its long-term positioning within the European Parliament.

3. S&D and ECR: Unlikely Bedfellows

Interestingly, the S&D group has also found itself aligning with the ECR on numerous occasions. Analysing the voting patterns reveals that the Socialists frequently voted with the ECR against the EPP, which marks a significant change from previous terms. The nature of these votes, however, often pertains to more technical matters rather than politically charged issues, reflecting a pragmatic approach by the S&D group in navigating the evolving political landscape.

This dynamic complicates the narrative surrounding political alliances in the European Parliament. The reasons for voting alongside the ECR differ significantly between the two groups, with S&D often motivated by a desire for more progressive outcomes, while ECR’s motivations may stem from a desire to disrupt the established order. This complexity suggests that while voting patterns may indicate collaboration, the underlying motivations could be vastly different, leading to divergent policy outcomes.

4. The Right-Wing Coalition: Numbers But No Cohesion

In theory, the right-wing factions, including the EPP, ECR, and other far-right groups, could leverage their numbers to form a more cohesive voting bloc. However, such unity remains elusive. The so-called “Venezuela majority,” which refers to an instance where various right-wing factions voted together on a resolution concerning human rights violations in Venezuela, has not become a regular occurrence. Instead, right-wing groups continue to vote in a fragmented manner, despite their increased presence in the Parliament.

This fragmentation could be attributed to ideological differences among the right-wing factions, making it difficult to establish a united front on key issues. The occasional victories achieved by right-wing coalitions highlight their growing influence but also underscore the challenges they face in maintaining consistent voting patterns.

5. The Patriots for Europe: An Isolated Group

While the ECR has managed to solidify its position within the Parliament, the newly formed Patriots for Europe group appears to be increasingly isolated. This group, which encompasses various far-right national parties, has not demonstrated the same level of collaboration with either the EPP or S&D as its predecessors did. This isolation raises questions about the viability of the Patriots for Europe as a significant political force within the European Parliament moving forward.

As the new legislative term progresses, it will be crucial to monitor how these dynamics evolve. The relatively small number of plenary votes thus far means that early trends may still shift in the coming years. However, the insights gleaned from the current data indicate a Parliament grappling with the pressures of an increasingly fragmented political landscape, where traditional alliances are being tested, and new coalitions are forming.

Concluding Thoughts

In conclusion, the first year of this European Parliament has been marked by significant political shifts and evolving alliances. The data reveals a complex landscape where traditional coalitions continue to hold, albeit under strain, while right-wing factions are attempting to navigate their newfound influence. The challenges of collaboration and ideological differences will undoubtedly shape the future of legislative processes in the European Parliament. As we move forward, it is imperative for lawmakers to strike a balance between their ideological commitments and the pragmatic need for cooperation to address pressing societal issues.

As always, the path towards achieving a net-zero future will require these political dynamics to align more closely with the urgent environmental goals. The ongoing evolution of political alliances will play a pivotal role in shaping the policies that will ultimately determine our collective ability to combat climate change and secure a sustainable future for all.