‘Report: Decarbonising buildings costs four times more than Scottish Gov’t predicted’

The Scottish Just Transition Commission (JTC) has raised a red flag about the cost of decarbonising Scotland’s homes and buildings, warning that it could be as high as £130 billion. This estimation dwarfs the Scottish Government’s official figure by a factor of four, indicating a substantial financial challenge ahead on the road to achieving net zero emissions.

This revelation comes ahead of the launch of a new report in Edinburgh, which aims to outline the necessary steps to secure the investment required for a fair and thorough decarbonisation process across the economy. Stephen Good from the JTC emphasised the need for a reality check on the costs involved and highlighted the urgent necessity for Scotland to accelerate its efforts to meet the target of decarbonising at least one million homes by 2030.

Furthermore, with recent significant government announcements regarding projects like Great British Energy and the National Wealth Fund, the JTC emphasised the critical importance of strategic and diligent investment planning by the Scottish Government. This planning would need to align with and capitalise on the new initiatives at the UK level to ensure a smooth and effective transition towards net zero.

The key messages from the report can be distilled into five crucial points:

1. New and innovative investment models are imperative.
2. Finance geared towards achieving net zero is distinct from investment for a Just Transition.
3. Clarity is needed on the strategic distribution of roles and responsibilities among public bodies, the Scottish Government, and local authorities.
4. Efforts should focus on uniting and leveraging local capacity.
5. The potential costs of failure are deemed unacceptable given the significant opportunities for Scotland.

The JTC assessed four key sectors, namely energy, transport, land use and agriculture, and the built environment and construction, to identify the need for new investment models. The report also highlighted existing initiatives in Scotland, such as the Scottish National Investment Bank, community-led renewable energy projects, and the Scottish Climate Intelligence Service, which are essential building blocks that require further development to support workers and communities through the emission reduction process.

Mr Good, an expert in construction, underlined the disparity in the estimated costs for decarbonisation, stating that the current £33 billion estimate falls short of the required investment. To meet the stringent net zero objectives, an estimated £130 billion would be needed, reflecting the need for a strategic and well-funded approach.

Despite the daunting financial figures, Mr Good emphasised the significant job opportunities the transition could create. However, the urgency of the situation was emphasised as Scotland currently falls far short of the necessary pace required to achieve the ambitious targets set for 2030.

The report further stresses that the current approach towards achieving net zero is inadequate, demanding urgent implementation of a new model to ensure long-term economic benefits in the sector. While calling on ministers to take proactive roles, the report also forewarns against the “cost of failure” if the investment is mismanaged, highlighting potential job losses and ecological consequences.

The Co-chair of the JTC, Professor Dave Reay, expressed hope that the report would foster a shared understanding of the challenges ahead and pave the way for a just transition to a low carbon economy in Scotland. Co-chair Satwat Rehman echoed the sentiment, calling for proactive government intervention to ensure equitable sharing of costs and benefits associated with the transition.

In response to the report, the Scottish Government assured that it would carefully review the findings as part of its commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2045. With emissions already significantly reduced in Scotland, the government remains steadfast in its climate action agenda, aiming to lead by example and tackle the pressing environmental challenges before us.

As households exhibit growing interest in decarbonising their homes, the Scottish Government noted the increased uptake of eco-friendly measures, including heat pumps and energy efficiency initiatives. The strides made in this direction indicate a positive trend towards a sustainable and greener future for Scotland.